Euthanised

Coco has no wish to pass judgement, and he hopes that there is no sense of that in the following, but the circumstances of the disappearance and subsequent demise of the squirrel afford an opportunity for a couple of comments.

It was that that “multiple reports from the public about the potentially unsafe housing of wildlife that could carry rabies and the illegal keeping of wildlife as pets” had been received by the Department for Environmental Conservation (DEC in the USA). The consequence for the squirrel was that it was taken from an allegedly unsafe house, which it appeared to be happy, to a safe house where it died.  

The concern for the welfare of wildlife is not to be derogated, but it does lead one to wonder where the equivalent organisation is for people who live in ‘potentially unsafe housing’ and why they are not removed from such places though of course not with similar consequences as in the case of the squirrel.

The second comment follows from Coco’s first, though it requires a slight rephrasal of what had happened, for it speaks of events which take place frequently and against which a protest such as was made in favour of the squirrel are in some places illegal. Whilst we do not have an equivalent of the DEC, we do have the legalised removal of people from safe housing with the same consequences as for the squirrel.

They are people for whom their environment is perfectly suited to their development and growth, and yet they are torn out of it and are quietly euthanised. The womb should be the safest place on earth for a human being.

Job in his distress cried out: Why then have you brought me out of the womb? Oh, that I had perished and no eye had seen me! I would have been as though I had not been. I would have been carried from the womb to the grave Job 10:18-19.

Most of us would not cry out in such a way wishing for a still-birth. Perhaps the words of King David are better for you: For you formed my inward parts; you wove me [together] in my mother’s womb. I will praise you, for I am fearfully and wonderfully made; marvellous are your works, and that my soul knows very well. My frame was not hidden from you, when I was made in secret, and skilfully wrought in the lowest parts of the earth. Your eyes saw my substance, being yet unformed, and in your book they all were  written, the days fashioned for me, when as yet there were none of them Psalm 139:13-16.

It is a big issue. It may make a difference on November the 5th 2024 in the USA.


A black man is allowed to say things that white men cannot.

Lipedema

Sometimes it is hard to obtain a list of the things that can go wrong after or during surgery, though best practice dictates that patients should be provided with full information in order that they may give informed consent to the intervention – it occurs to Coco that perhaps the insurance standard of the utmost good faith should be applied to the contract – but at the ITALF 2024 conference held in the auditorium at the Atheneum Pontificium Regina Apostolorum in Rome we were presented with such a list,

Trattamento riabilitativo termine e getione dei problemi: E Fiengo, Pomezia, RM

Complicanze
Incompleta risoluzione del dolore
Dipendenza dall’indumento compressivo
Parestasie, ipoestasie, iperestasie, e compressioni nervose
Discromie e disturbi circulatori distrettuali
Linfedema secondario
Edema e fibrosi post-operatoria
Cicatrici e alterazioni fasciali
Lipedema regrowth

ITALF 2024 at APRA, Rome. Presentation by E Fiengo, Pomezia

It goes without saying that the list itself is ‘incompleta’ and there are other perhaps much more serious risks which are not listed here, but which are not directly related to the problem which the surgery is attempting to solve, but it is good to hear an acknowledgment that some of the outcomes may be considered to be a complete failure of the surgery itself, for the final condition of the patient will be worse than at the beginning. Surely it is not inappropriate that the words of our Lord may be paraphrased about them:

Woe to you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! For you travel land and sea to win one proselyte, and when he is won, you make him twice as much a son of hell as yourselves. Matthew 23:15

Coco leaves it as an exercise for the reader to produce a suitable paraphrase. Please leave it in the comments should you think it apt.

Incomplete resolution of pain
Compression garment dependence
Parastasia, hypostasia, hyperastasia, and nerve compression
Dischromia and district circulatory disorders
Secondary lymphedema
Postoperative edema and fibrosis
Scars and fascial alterations
Lipedema regrowth

Lockdown (too)

The following post may provoke a response from the censers(sic!), and a lockdown which is far from useless, though perhaps needless, may be imposed here, after which you shall be glad never to hear from me again.

What do you think of what was orated by the Lord Hannan of Kingsclere?

The story about the people of Ohio is quite entertaining..


Lord Hannan of Kingsclere speaking in the House of Lords. Published 3rd September 2024

Further comments may be found here: Fake News?

Should the following link fail, you may be sure that a response has been provoked:

Luther’s wisdom

It was an interesting discussion about the place of Luther in European and in particular German history, and his continuing influence that prompted me to write, for whilst the conversation was informative, offering perhaps a different perspective than you would be given by an O-level syllabus, there appeared to be a contradiction in it. You may want to listen, or watch for yourself, to judge the matter more carefully

Martin Luther: The Man Who Changed The World from The Rest is History where Tom and Dominic (who?) talk about the man whom we cannot forget.

There is a reference somewhere in the middle of the discussion to the authorities of the age. These authorities are not to be questioned, not because of the civil or political power they hold, though some of them did, and as we shall see do so today, but because they were in the know. They were the cognisant (cognizenci) of their day. Coco does somethings think they are may be more properly described as the gnostics of their day. These people were able to influence the responses of the authorities and the masses to the sometimes new ideas proposed by those who really were in the know, and who had by careful research or experiment been able to demonstrate the veracity of the ideas. A reference may be made to the Copernican revolution; we must not lose sight of this that today we have a different understanding of the revolutions of the planets than any of the three sides of the debate. The science of one year may become the dust of the next.

There was a sense in which the speakers sought to suggest that the day of the cognisant had passed and we now lived in an age where all ideas and thoughts were properly tested for their truth, and that this approach was something introduced by the Renaissance, and built upon by Luther – every man must be free to understand the Word of God by his own conscience: My conscience is captive to the word of God! To go against conscience is neither right nor safe. I therefore cannot, and I will not recant! Here I stand. I can do other. But then we had a reference to the epidemiologist. Apparently in recent years we believed them. They became the authorities who would tell us what to think and how to behave. Today the authority behind them is making a power grab in order to be able to control not only what we think and how we behave, but what we can do and where we can go. Should they succeed then all that is required is a word from them, and everyone must fall into line.

Are we lazy? Is that why we do not question the pronouncements of the cognisant? Are they really cognisant, or are such as these pursuing their own agenda? Darwin when he proposed his origin of the species (note not the origin of life) provided clear tests for his hypothesis. The discovery of DNA finally showed that the hypothesis had failed the tests (though it should have been obvious before then), but still the so-called cognisant continue to speak as if it were valid, and even try to extend it beyond the limits Darwin himself imposed. They are pursuing their own agenda, and those who seek to question them, as they tried to do to Galileo and Luther are shut down.

Are we forgetful? The cognisant of old have often had to give up their ideas in the light of evidence. Those who were wise recognised the limitations of their ideas and were careful to express them in such a way that the limits were clear. Boyle’s Law is universal, but read it carefully before you criticise it where it appears to fail.

What really stood in the way of both Luther and Galileo was not true knowledge, but a wisdom of this world. It is a wisdom which leads the fool to say: There is no god. Paul speaks to the Corinthians about this in quite clear terms:

For it is written: I will destroy the wisdom of the wise, And bring to nothing the understanding of the prudent. Where is the wise? Where is the scribe? Where is the disputer of this age? Has not God made foolish the wisdom of this world? For since, in the wisdom of God, the world through wisdom did not know God, it pleased God through the foolishness of the message preached to save those who believe.1

Now some would like to suggest that this means that all the wisdom of this world is worthless, but let us not so misunderstand what Paul is saying. He makes the context of his remarks quite clear: the world through wisdom did not know God. Paul knew very well that what may be known of God is made known in men, for God has shown it to them. For since the creation of the world his invisible attributes are clearly seen, being understood by the things that are made, even his eternal power and Godhead, so that they are without excuse, as he wrote to the Romans. Paul is not saying that we should not take notice of the world around us, nor is he saying we should not try to understand it. It is in understanding the world correctly that we see the witness that God has left in the world to his invisible attributes as Paul says here.

Paul goes on to say something similar to that which he said to the Corinthians: because, although they knew God, they did not glorify him as God, nor were thankful, but became futile in their thoughts, and their foolish hearts were darkened. Professing to be wise, they became fools, and changed the glory of the incorruptible God into an image made like corruptible man – and birds and four-footed animals and creeping things.2

They thought they knew something. They thought they were wise. But the condition of their heart meant that they used their knowledge to invent a wisdom which would led them eventually to say: There is no God. On the way to that point they invent gods for themselves, which are clearly false gods. They cannot hear, they cannot speak, they cannot move themselves but have to be carried on carts. Some see the foolishness of this behaviour but cannot find a satisfactory intellectual argument to support the statement that there is no God until they exalt the wisdom of man, his power of reasoning, his logical mind above the evidence that is around them, and they invent stories to explain it away. Stories which cannot of course be proven to be false for no-one was around to see the fake story unfold.

The wisdom of the world of which Paul speaks here then is that false wisdom which says in its heart that man is self-dependent, that he has no need of a god (other than the false one he makes in his own image but which he often will not acknowledge that he has made). Wisdom is intended to lead us to God, but man in his wisdom corrupts it to turn himself away from God. It is this corrupted wisdom, which Paul describes as the wisdom of this world, of which he speaks here. Paul is fully aware of the proverb which says: The fear of the Lord is the beginning of wisdom, and the knowledge of the Holy One is understanding

Wisdom in itself is to be valued, to be embraced, when it is not corrupt. So Paul in writing to the Corinthians that he will not use the sophistry (another word for wisdom, which we often use in a pejorative sense when false arguments are used) to persuade them to become believers, but will simply speak the truth to them. And this is the truth that Jesus Christ was crucified. This is a fact which runs counter to all the wisdom of this world, that a god should allow the mortals to crucify him (remember that crucifixion was reserved for the lowest of the low) was foolishness to the Greek and Roman world. So he explains it to the Corinthians:

I delivered to you first of all that which I also received: that Christ died for our sins according to the Scriptures, and that he was buried, and that he rose again the third day according to the Scriptures, and that he was seen by Cephas (Simon Peter), then by the twelve. After that he was seen by over five hundred brethren at once, of whom the greater part remain to the present, but some have fallen asleep. After that he was seen by James, then by all the apostles. Then last of all he was seen by me also, as by one born out of due time.3

Let us not then be deceived by the foolishness of the sophistry of this world and say in our hearts: There is no God. Rather let us believe the gospel which has been delivered to us that Chris died for our sins. Let us not be wise in our own minds, but receive the wisdom which comes from the fear of the Lord.

But let us also not forget that the study of this world is intended to lead us to God, not away from him for as David said:

The heavens declare the glory of God; and the expanse shows his handiwork.
Day unto day utters speech, and night unto night reveals knowledge.
There is no speech nor language where their voice is not heard.
Their sound has gone out through all the earth, and their words to the end of the world.
4

1 1 Corinthian 1:14-2:16
14 I thank God that I baptized none of you except Crispus and Gaius, 15 lest anyone should say that I had baptized in my own name. 16 Yes, I also baptized the household of Stephanas. Besides, I do not know whether I baptized any other. 17 For Christ did not send me to baptize, but to preach the gospel, not with wisdom of words, lest the cross of Christ should be made of no effect.
Christ the Power and Wisdom of God
18 For the message of the cross is foolishness to those who are perishing, but to us who are being saved it is the power of God. 19 For it is written:
I will destroy the wisdom of the wise,
And bring to nothing the understanding of the prudent.

20 Where is the wise? Where is the scribe? Where is the disputer of this age? Has not God made foolish the wisdom of this world? 21 For since, in the wisdom of God, the world through wisdom did not know God, it pleased God through the foolishness of the message preached to save those who believe. 22 For Jews request a sign, and Greeks seek after wisdom; 23 but we preach Christ crucified, to the Jews a stumbling block and to the Greeks foolishness, 24 but to those who are called, both Jews and Greeks, Christ the power of God and the wisdom of God. 25 Because the foolishness of God is wiser than men, and the weakness of God is stronger than men.
Glory Only in the Lord
26 For you see your calling, brethren, that not many wise according to the flesh, not many mighty, not many noble, are called. 27 But God has chosen the foolish things of the world to put to shame the wise, and God has chosen the weak things of the world to put to shame the things which are mighty; 28 and the base things of the world and the things which are despised God has chosen, and the things which are not, to bring to nothing the things that are, 29 that no flesh should glory in his presence. 30 But of him you are in Christ Jesus, who became for us wisdom from God—and righteousness and sanctification and redemption— 31 that, as it is written, He who glories, let him glory in the Lord.
And I, brethren, when I came to you, did not come with excellence of speech or of wisdom declaring to you the testimony of God. 2 For I determined not to know anything among you except Jesus Christ and him crucified. 3 I was with you in weakness, in fear, and in much trembling. 4 And my speech and my preaching were not with persuasive words of human wisdom, but in demonstration of the Spirit and of power, 5 that your faith should not be in the wisdom of men but in the power of God.
Spiritual Wisdom
6 However, we speak wisdom among those who are mature, yet not the wisdom of this age, nor of the rulers of this age, who are coming to nothing. 7 But we speak the wisdom of God in a mystery, the hidden wisdom which God ordained before the ages for our glory, 8 which none of the rulers of this age knew; for had they known, they would not have crucified the Lord of glory.
9 But as it is written:
Eye has not seen, nor ear heard,
Nor have entered into the heart of man
The things which God has prepared for those who love Him.

10 But God has revealed them to us through his Spirit. For the Spirit searches all things, yes, the deep things of God. 11 For what man knows the things of a man except the spirit of the man which is in him? Even so no one knows the things of God except the Spirit of God. 12 Now we have received, not the spirit of the world, but the Spirit who is from God, that we might know the things that have been freely given to us by God.
13 These things we also speak, not in words which man’s wisdom teaches but which the Holy Spirit teaches, comparing spiritual things with spiritual. 14 But the natural man does not receive the things of the Spirit of God, for they are foolishness to him; nor can he know them, because they are spiritually discerned. 15 But he who is spiritual judges all things, yet he himself is rightly judged by no one. 16 For who has known the mind of the Lord that he may instruct him? But we have the mind of Christ.

2 Romans 1

3 1 Corinthians 15

4 Psalm 19

Famine in Africa

Digging riverbeds to find water

The article posted by the BBC Digging riverbeds in Zimbabwe in desperate search for water reminds us of the dire famine in much of south central Africa. The Zimbabwe Partnership Trust has for several years supported communities in Zimbabwe including by financing the drilling of bore-holes to provide water for agricultural projects and schools in remote regions. ZPT is focussed this year very much on the relief of famine in those communities where it has been working through trusted local partners.

Rosalind Franklin

Congratulations to those who were recognised today by the Rosalind Franklin Society (LinkedIn and FB) among whom you will find the Professor Christine Moffatt

RFS Awards in Science Recognize Outstanding Contributions from Women and Minorities

https://www.rosalindfranklinsociety.org/rfs-awards-in-science-2023

We are thrilled to announce a new publication honouring the scientists receiving the 3rd Annual Rosalind Franklin Society Awards in Science!

In partnership with Mary Ann Liebert Inc., we launched this prestigious annual award in 2021. It recognizes the best paper by a woman or underrepresented minority in science in each of the publisher’s 100 peer-reviewed journals. Our goal is to highlight the important contributions of these scientists and provide role models and mentors for younger scientists following in their footsteps.

“Science, engineering, and technology, critical in a global society, are underappreciated and under attack at a time when extraordinary advances have been accomplished. We have seen the swift introduction of COVID-19 vaccines to quench a pandemic, the widespread introduction of metagenomics to improve human health, and intriguing applications of machine learning and artificial intelligence in the neurosciences. Yet, those who contribute to advances in knowledge and produce innovations that improve our lives do not receive the appropriate recognition and praise their discoveries merit. Nor appreciation of the dedication and perseverance that are the foundation of science and the hallmark of the scientist,” said Rita R. Colwell, PhD, President of the Rosalind Franklin Society, Director of the National Science Foundation (1998–2004), Distinguished Professor at the University of Maryland and Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, and Chair and Founder of CosmosID. “These outstanding individuals and their accomplishments make it clear that their talent cannot be overlooked, and their achievements can now be recognized fully. We salute them and their successes.”

The anthology includes a biography of each winner and an abstract of their selected work. A total of $100,000 has been allocated for these award winners. The book is a remarkable compendium of research in science, engineering, and medicine that has been accomplished by outstanding investigators who, early in their careers, were not considered “real” scientists, engineers, or medical researchers because they did not fit the stereotypical scientist, engineer, or physician role.

The RFS Awards in Science 2023 was produced with generous support from the Rita Allen Foundation, Lyda Hill Philanthropies, and Warren Alpert Foundation.

For interview requests, please contact Kathryn Ryan at the publisher. To obtain a copy of the anthology of the RFS Awards in Science 2023, please contact rfs@rosalindfranklinsociety.org

Anthology of the RFS Awards in Science 2023 

Turkeys for Christmas?

Whilst it is voting day in the UK, it is quite a different day in the former North American colonies. One of Coco’s friends pointed him to The False Prophet Rising: Part 2 – The Merging of Church and State https://i.ytimg.com/vi/BaoI5FPWO5o/hqdefault.jpg. It was not something that would normally grab his attention. Listening to the analysis of a Trump speech at the National Religious Broadcasters’ Convention – 2/22/24 reminded him very much of encouraging turkeys to vote for Christmas and not letting them know that they are on the menu. Having no influence as far as the choice of their new president is to be makes the detail of the various presentations in some ways superfluous which is a view contrary to that of the BBC (see US election 2024: Why the world is watching so closely https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/2048/cpsprodpb/CB97/production/_132291125_whitehouse_976getty.jpg.webp).

Without making any political statement, the suggestion is that Trump does not actually know what he is talking about, though he thinks he does. He has an altogether different purpose in what he says than that which the commentators perceive in it. When you are playing chess the aim of course is to position your pieces in such a way that you may capture the opposing king. This is most effectively achieved if you are able to position your pieces in that way without drawing the attention of your opponent to what you have done. Now in this world chess is not being played with only 0x20 pieces. The more pieces there are the greater the likelihood of being able to move the relevant ones into position without their ultimate purpose being seen, providing of course you have a different good enough reason for so positioning them.

This is the strategy which is being suggested by the commentators, and note, the particular pieces in the game do not ever need to know why they have been positioned apart from the immediate cause. In this case, the immediate cause is that Trump wants the support of the broadcasters in his campaign. None of the pieces need to know what their ultimate use will be. This is especially important in war games of course, for if any of the pieces fall into enemy hands you want them to have no more information than that they had orders to be where they were found.

Coco has a different view of the end times than that which he perceived to be the views both criticised and held by the commentators, but something is going to happen. If nothing else Daniel’s prophecy makes that clear (he could go into further detail but shall refrain here today), but exactly what it is, and certainly when, we do not yet know. It will be obvious enough when the day comes. For Coco the assessment of Trump’s appeal was interesting enough, though it contained nothing new from the prophetic perspective, you may however find it quite interesting from a political for it illustrates how a politician can represent himself to be on more than one side at the same time. Some form of quantum tunnelling is possible to the seasoned political chameleon, but Coco is sure you knew all of that.

Anyway, Coco leaves it to you. The whole show will take less than an hour if you speed it up so that they talk at a reasonable speed rather than a drawl.

For an alternate view of the end times, Wesley aptly express it in his hymn, which also makes reference to the proclamation by trump some 250 years prior to his actual appearance:

Lo! He comes with clouds descending,
once for favoured sinners slain;
thousand thousand saints attending
swell the triumph of his train:
Hallelujah!
God appears on earth to reign.

Every eye shall now behold him 
robed in dreadful majesty;
those who set at nought and sold him,
pierced and nailed him to the tree,
deeply wailing,
shall the true Messiah see.

Every island, sea, and mountain,  
heaven and earth, shall flee away;
all who hate him must, confounded,
hear the trump proclaim the day;
come to judgment!
come to judgment! come away!

Genus reassignment

Times were very hard. The countryside was being squeezed by the urban population, rows and rows of solar panels were being placed not only upon the most productive arable fields but now even upon the pastoral land where sheep may have safely grazed. The panels it was true provided much needed shade from the summer sum, but the diminution of the number of animals put pressure on the economy of the canine population, making life very difficult for the wolves who had families to feed.

As a young wolf Adolphe recognised that the situation was very grievous indeed. How could he raise a family if he could not provide for them was a question he frequently asked himself until one day when he met Flora.

Flora was a Pomeranian who visited the moorland beyond the fields one day. Adolphe was resting in the shade of one of the few trees on the moor when her mistress disturbed him, also looking for shade from the noon-day sun. Adolphe retreated to a safe distance in the bracken, waited and watched. Adolphe never saw her walk. She was always in the arms of her mistress, who treated her more like a cub than a dog he thought. Just then, as it did to Newton when he waited under an apple tree, it occurred to him. It would be a bold experiment, he said to himself, but it may work.

It was many days later that he saw Mutton, a member of the Salish family, running freely among the solar panels. He made her acquaintance and learned that her master was nearby, but she was allowed to run as she will. Adolphe was perturbed by the reference to the master being nearby, and watched carefully. Often the masters carried iron sticks which had deadly accuracy. It was that which he feared.  He bid his time. Mutton and her master continued to visit the area with quite some regularity. Slowly Adolphe got to know her better.

One day her master saw them running together and called her back. She encouraged him to follow, saying that all would be well, as long as he did just the same things that she did.

It was difficult for Adolphe to roll over onto his back to allow the human to rub his belly with a pair of heavy boots, but he noticed that there was no long iron stick on the human’s back. The human allowed them to eat together, though there was not a lot as he had only prepared enough for one dog. Mutton encouraged Adolphe to eat the most.

On the next occasion the human told Mutton to find her friend. A few hours later they both arrived and ate together again, but this time the human had prepared two meals. The lying on the back took place again, and then – this was not part of Adolphe’s plan – something was placed around his neck. He had not noticed before but Mutton also wore one. A vine was attached to it and held firmly by the human. It was time to go. Adolphe remembered what he had been told. ‘It will be alright. Do as I do.’ Adolphe was about to learn new things.

Some months later they returned to the moor. The vine was slipped from his neck and he and Mutton ran freely again. They returned that day to the human’s den, and so for the rest of the week. Mutton later told Adolphe that he was free to go if he wished. The human would be happy either way. Mutton returned home.

They continued to meet on the moor, then one day Mutton asked to see his den. She did not return home that day. Her master, his friends and their dogs, spent the next several weeks looking for her but to no avail. Though they often found evidence of her recent activity – that she was alive and well that was very clear – there were no sightings. The spy-cam that they set up caught many images of the wolves, including Adolphe, but Mutton never strayed into view.

Five months later Mutton arrived back at her former home with a litter of woolly, wolves. They were perhaps six weeks old. She returned to the moor shortly afterward, but continued to make regular visits to her old master.

The leopard changes his spots

Adolphe reflected on the success of his experiment. How much easier it would be for his offspring to remain hidden from the ever watching eye of the shepherd.

As Farmer Giles raised his gun he heard a voice coming from the flock.

The wolf bleated: Don’t shoot – I have had a genus reassignment!

Lupine to Ovine?

The prophet asked: Can the Ethiopian change his skin or the leopard its spots? Then may you also do good who are accustomed to do evil. (Jeremiah 13:23) The Lord is speaking against his people in Jerusalem, giving them warnings of what is to come if they will not change their ways. The words sound harsh, but they are full of compassion:

Hear and give ear: Do not be proud, for the Lord has spoken. Give glory to the Lord your God before he causes darkness, and before your feet stumble on the dark mountains, and while you are looking for light, he turns it into the shadow of death and makes it dense darkness. But if you will not hear it, my soul will weep in secret for your pride; my eyes will weep bitterly and run down with tears.

Jeremiah 23:15-17

The people are comfortable in their ignorance. Everyone of them wants to do it my way and not the Lord’s way. Pride and godlessness fill the streets. This soon overflows into violence against others. If we insist on my way, and never give in or consider others, we shall soon come into conflict with those around us. If pride fills our hearts, then we shall soon disrespect those around us who do not have quite the same view of ourselves that we have. The apostle rejoins us to not to think of [ourselves] more highly than [we] ought to think, but to think soberly, as God has dealt to each one a measure of faith. So he warns them that they must change, but so accustomed to them have their wicked ways become, they cannot change them any more than a leopard can change its spots.

But he problem goes much deeper than that, as intimated by the double simile. It is not just a bad habit which we must shake off, it is an intrinsic part of our make up as human beings just as the colour of our skin. The change required is impossible for us, just as impossible as gender and genus reassignments are. Who then can be saved? the disciples asked Jesus, in a different context (Mark 10). A change is required which is fundamental. The Lord provided the answer: With men it is impossible, but not with God; for with God all things are possible. John records for us as many as received him, to them he gave the right to become children of God, to those who believe in his name: who were born, not of blood, nor of the will of the flesh, nor of the will of man, but of God.

Just as the wolf cannot become a sheep, even if he were able to grow woollen fleece as a sheep, we cannot by the will of man become children of God. We must be born again, born from above, born of the Spirit, born of God. With man it is impossible, but with God, simply come to Jesus and receive him.

Fake News?

Coco had only visited the site in order to check whether British or US spelling was being used to describe the class of medical facility which are called health centres, and not to examine whether fake news were being promoted, and whilst the video may contain much accurate information about the response of the government to the outbreak of covid-19, it began on a rather bad foot.

Coco is talking about this item on YouTube:


It is at 19 June 2024 on the home page of the Ministry of Health, Uganda but may be replaced at any time.

In the Ministry of Health Covid-19 response documentary, which was released on the 1 September 2023 we hear:
This virus killed more people in the first twenty-five weeks than HIV/AIDS has killed in twenty-five years.
These words, corrected here by Coco, appear in the transcript at c0:18

That is an interesting claim. It was followed by a reference to the 1918 Spanish ‘flu death toll after which you may see 100,000,000 appear briefly on the screen. Read that carefully: More than 100,000,000 infected. In the context you may be forgiven for thinking that it was a claim that there were 100 million deaths. Coco thought to investigate the claim. Be patient we have to look at a number of sources, some of which may be more reliable than the others.

In brief

According to a study in PubMed: Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020 (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34841244/) in which it is stated that If left unchecked with no vaccination and no other public health interventions, and assuming circulation of only wild-type variants and no variants of concern, the pandemic would eventually cause 8.18 million deaths. According to Wikipedia the estimated actual number of deaths to June 2024 was 7.05 millions.

On the other dies of the coin we have the table at Deaths from HIV/AIDS by age, World https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-from-hiv-by-age which provides figures for all years since 1980.  The total number of deaths since 1980 taken from these tables is c.34 millions.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-from-hiv-by-age?time=earliest..2021&showSelectionOnlyInTable=1

Using these statistics, if we take the first twenty five years of AIDS there were 16m deaths. In the last 25 years there were 28m deaths. Both of these numbers are greater than both the estimate provided by the PubMed paper for the potential total number of deaths, and the actual number reported by Wikipedia from Covid-19.

On what basis then can the YouTube video claim that Covid-19 has killed more in 25 weeks than HIV/AIDS in 25 years? Is this not fake news?

Further resources

By way of comparison, there are other tables of statistics available for both Covid-19 and HIV/AIDS related deaths, which give higher figures than Coco has used above.

According to the Global HIV & AIDS statistics — Fact sheet  https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet 40.4 million [32.9 million–51.3 million] people have died from AIDS-related illnesses since the start of the epidemic. This data does give range rather than simply one figure, into which, though at the lower end, the figure on ourworldindata.org falls.

The table at Total number of AIDS-related deaths worldwide from 2000 to 2022 https://www.statista.com/statistics/257209/number-of-aids-related-deaths-worldwide-since-2001 indicates, by interpolation, that there have been closer to c.31m deaths in the past twenty five years from AID/HIV.  The figures I have used in the interpolation are given in italics in the list below:

99000102030405060708091011121314151617181920212223
1,61,71,71,81,81,92,01,81,71,61,41,31,41,41,31,21,11,00,940,770,690,690,660,630,60
Total number of AIDS-related deaths worldwide from 2000 to 2022 (with Coco’s interpolations)

This table provides smaller figures for the most recent years, but the differences between the two sources amount to less than 500k, which is an insignificant difference in the context of several millions.

Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_HIV/AIDS also quotes higher figures for deaths.

Concerning totals deaths from Covid-19 Wikipedia reports https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_deaths: There have been reported 7,050,691 (updated 17 June 2024) confirmed COVID-induced deaths worldwide. As of January 2023, taking into account likely COVID induced deaths via excess deaths, the 95% confidence interval suggests the pandemic to have caused between 16 and 28.2 million deaths. Even if these higher figures are correct, which we must remember are for a period of more than three years, then it is unlikely that This virus killed more people in the first twenty-five weeks than HIV/AIDS has killed in twenty-five years. In the first 25 weeks the highest figure we could have for Covid-19 deaths is 28,2*25/156, say 5 millions, and the lowest estimate of HIV/AIDS deaths over twenty-five years is 16 millions.

Perhaps the effect of the interventions has saved less than 1m lives (the earlier estimate was for 8 millions but the outcome was 7 millions) over the four years if the PubMed figures are to be believed.

The economic impact

An article in the Grauniad reminds us of the value of a prevented fatality (VPF): £2m in the UK US$11,6 in the USA: Are Smart Motorways Safe

On the basis of those figures the amount to be spent to save those 1m lives would be £2 billion in the UK or US$11,6 billion in the US (which in unconventional language would be £2 or US$11,6 million million). We may well want to ask, How much did they actually spend?

Reports indicate that the US has figures of US$8-14 billion (The COVID-19 Pandemic and the $16 Trillion(sic.) Virus (this article provides alternative measures which indicate lower values of a life), the UK up to £400 million (Covid-19: How much has it cost?). Both of these figures are of course open to discussion and argument. It is likely that the basis on which they have been prepared is far from agreed, though there may be a consensus amongst those who prepared the reports. That they are large and not insignificant costs is hardly however disputable, and as we shall see even if they are out by as much as 50% (ie twice the actual real cost) they are significantly higher than we would expect using the VPF figures.

The following table using figures extracted from the data sets available at Our World in Data: How many people die and how many are born each year? and Explore the global data on confirmed COVID-19 cases (set the metric to confrmed deaths, the interval to cumulative and uncheck Relative to population) shows the estimated expected local cost of saving 1 million lives globally.

Covid-19 Total casesDeaths
WorldWorldUnited StatesUnited Kingdom
31/12/202080,318,4161,897,597342,92090,475
31/12/2021200,298,4853,549,359469,66785,684
31/12/2022424,017,3771,249,137267,38939,186
31/12/202369,382,441323,72884,45916,767
31/12/2024               1,634,76334,72624,1330
(2024 is to early June)         
Total775,651,4827,054,5471,188,568232,112
Anticipated deaths (PubMed)8,180,0001,378,187269,142
Saving by interventions(?)1,125,453189,61937,030
Value of a prevented death (VPF)$11,600,000£2,000,000
Expected costs of prevention (millions)$2,200,000£70,000
Actual estimated costs (millions)$16,000,000£400,000
Extracted from the actual data set on GitHub which is presently called owid-covid-data.csv

Conclusion

Assuming that the number of deaths saved in each of these two countries is proportional to the actual number, and that the estimate provided by PubMed is reliable (but we have no other), then the expected spend, based upon the VPF figures would have been US$2,2 billions and £70,000 millions. Both countries based upon their own working VPF models (whatever shortcomings may be seen in the computation of those figures) have spent six or seven times those amounts.

Post-script
As noted elsewhere, the covid-19 infection was not the Spanish ‘flu in its impact. The death rate has settled down to about 2% of those infected. Contrariwise influenza causes 200-500,000 (possibly as high as 700,000 as we see at the end of the article) deaths per year according to data provided by Our World in Data. A different article in Our World tells us that Yet, data on the flu is limited but such as there is suggests that Influenza occurs all over the world, with an annual global attack rate estimated at 5-10% in adults and 20-30% in children (WHO). Taking these estimates there would be about 300-600 millions in adults and 400-600 millions in children of infections each year.